Psychology of Forecasting

Whether it's packing an umbrella after looking at the weather app or taking environmental policy measures based on climate models: Our actions are often shaped by our assumptions about the future. In this lecture, we look at the psychological aspects of such forecasts. How do people develop their ideas about the future and how can the accuracy of these ideas be improved? How good are human predictions compared to statistical models? And what factors determine whether other people accept or reject our forecasts? Based on this knowledge, we then discuss the social and ethical dimensions of forecasting. For this purpose, we look at the use of forecasting in law enforcement and jurisdiction.